By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. In biological evolution, the advent of DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the “designs” of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. Search for joy and it will elude you. After sixty years of devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. How do we determine if an entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? With this type of objective view of consciousness, the conundrums do go away. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over a period of time: Already, IBM’s “Blue Gene” supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops). When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed “neuron transistors” that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. How do the claims and behaviors–compelling as they will be–relate to the subjective experience of these reinstantiated people? The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on its relevance, utility, and accessibility. Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the steep part of the exponential curve. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by huge spans of time. At any point in time, we would be able to sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. Values are deeply embedded and critical for … We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. Subjectively, the issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. Specific paradigms, such as Moore’s Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software “hacking” techniques. But we won’t leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. MGB: Medial Geniculate Body. So “recessions” are likely to be shallow and short lived. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Bill Joy’s most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. But not everyone will read this essay. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. The insurer has the absolute right to take a totaled car, and it almost always does. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to expand outward at at least light speed.
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